Update on population projections for London Borough of Merton

Merton’s housing target in the draft New London Plan increased from 411 new homes per annum to 1,328 new homes per annum. The GLA housing-led population projections take the higher housing target into account, even though the level of assumed development is much higher than Merton has delivered historically.

Every year the demography team at the GLA give the council the option to run its own Borough Preferred Option (BPO) population projections. These are calculated using our housing trajectory (published in the Authority Monitoring Report each year), which is considered to be the best estimate of assumed development in Merton.

We are in the process of reviewing the population projections that the council should use to plan for future infrastructure needs alongside the New Local Plan and will update our approach accordingly.

In the meantime, the Borough Preferred Option population projection is available to download in Excel format.

Population and demographics data is an important tool in helping to understand a local area, the needs of the people that live there and how these change over time. As part of this information, population projections help local authorities to understand how changes in population will have an impact on future demand and how services can be delivered and designed to manage this. The population of Merton as well as London as a whole is projected to continue to increase, which will have an impact on a whole range of services, from housing, to school places, to the environment as well as on local health services and the voluntary sector.

Guide to Population Projections has been produced to provide more detail about the different projection models that are available, their methodologies and how they are calculated.